3 results
6 - Climate change impacts and adaptation
- Edited by Sarah E. Cornell, I. Colin Prentice, Macquarie University, Sydney, Joanna I. House, University of Bristol, Catherine J. Downy, European Space Agency
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- Book:
- Understanding the Earth System
- Published online:
- 05 November 2012
- Print publication:
- 09 August 2012, pp 160-201
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Summary
In this chapter, we address the biophysical impacts of climate change, and the consequent impacts on socio-economic systems. Modelling the impacts associated with future climate change provides important information for society’s mitigation and adaptation responses. It also presents significant challenges for Earth system science. We discuss the ways in which uncertainty in impact modelling arises and how it can be managed.
Introduction
Key concepts
Changes in climate, including those arising as a consequence of anthropogenic perturbations of the climate system, can result in a wide variety of impacts on Earth’s ecosystems and the human activities that depend on them. There are two good practical reasons why it is important to understand the processes involved and assess the possible magnitudes of impacts.
First, an assessment of the extent to which continued anthropogenic climate change could inflict damage is needed in order that well-informed decisions can be made about the reduction of human influences on climate. Our understanding of Earth system behaviour alerts us to the fact that action to mitigate climate change through reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions is not without consequences; so decisions to pursue mitigation options need to be weighed up on the basis of reliable estimates of the costs, risks and benefits of different courses of action.
Secondly, the increase in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations since the Industrial Revolution means that further climate change is inevitable even if greenhouse-gas emissions were to be reduced soon ( Figure 6.1 ). It is therefore necessary for society to adapt to unavoidable changes. Since adaptation action is also not without consequences, it is important that adaptive action addresses credible risks , and represents an efficient allocation of resources.
Chapter 4 - Changes in Impacts of Climate Extremes: Human Systems and Ecosystems
- from Section III
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- By John Handmer, Yasushi Honda, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Nigel Arnell, Gerardo Benito, Jerry Hatfield, Ismail Fadl Mohamed, Pascal Peduzzi, Shaohong Wu, Boris Sherstyukov, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Zheng Yan, Sebastian Vicuna, Avelino Suarez, Amjad Abdulla, Laurens M. Bouwer, John Campbell, Masahiro Hashizume, Fred Hattermann, Robert Heilmayr, Adriana Keating, Monique Ladds, Katharine J. Mach, Michael D. Mastrandrea, Reinhard Mechler, Carlos Nobre, Apurva Sanghi, James Screen, Joel Smith, Adonis Velegrakis, Walter Vergara, Anya M. Waite, Jason Westrich, Joshua Whittaker, Yin Yunhe, Hiroya Yamano
- Edited by Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker, Qin Dahe
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- Book:
- Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
- Published online:
- 05 August 2012
- Print publication:
- 28 May 2012, pp 231-290
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Summary
Executive Summary
Extreme impacts can result from extreme weather and climate events, but can also occur without extreme events. This chapter examines two broad categories of impacts on human and ecological systems, both of which are influenced by changes in climate, vulnerability, and exposure: first, the chapter primarily focuses on impacts that result from extreme weather and climate events, and second, it also considers extreme impacts that are triggered by less-than-extreme weather or climate events. These two categories of impacts are examined across sectors, systems, and regions. Extreme events can have positive as well as negative impacts on ecosystems and human activities.
Economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters have increased, but with large spatial and interannual variability (high confidence, based on high agreement, medium evidence). Global weather- and climate-related disaster losses reported over the last few decades reflect mainly monetized direct damages to assets, and are unequally distributed. Estimates of annual losses have ranged since 1980 from a few US$ billion to above 200 billion (in 2010 dollars), with the highest value for 2005 (the year of Hurricane Katrina). In the period 2000 to 2008, Asia experienced the highest number of weather- and climate-related disasters. The Americas suffered the most economic loss, accounting for the highest proportion (54.6%) of total loss, followed by Asia (27.5%) and Europe (15.9%). Africa accounted for only 0.6% of global economic losses. Loss estimates are lower bound estimates because many impacts, such as loss of human lives, cultural heritage, and ecosystem services, are difficult to value and monetize, and thus they are poorly reflected in estimates of losses. [4.5.1, 4.5.3.3, 4.5.4.1]
3 - Adapting to the effects of climate change on water supply reliability
- Edited by W. Neil Adger, University of East Anglia, Irene Lorenzoni, University of East Anglia, Karen L. O'Brien, Universitetet i Oslo
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- Book:
- Adapting to Climate Change
- Published online:
- 31 August 2009
- Print publication:
- 25 June 2009, pp 42-53
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Summary
Introduction
Climate change is expected to produce higher temperatures, drier summers and wetter winters across southern England. Reductions in water availability are expected as a consequence (Arnell, 2004) with direct abstractions becoming less reliable during summer and more seasonal, higher intensity rainfall producing high runoff and less water able to percolate into aquifers (Environment Agency, 2005). In an area already facing water deficits and supply challenges (Environment Agency, 2007a), and with increasing population demands, adaptation in the short term (to 2030) is necessary. With water resources in south-east England under increasing pressure, water companies and their regulators are exploring options to adapt not only to altered demands, but also to the challenge of climate change. The water supply industry in England and Wales is well aware of the challenge of climate change, and methodologies exist to both estimate the effects of climate change and support adaptation decisions (Arnell and Delaney, 2006). The industry has also identified a wide range of options for addressing the supply–demand imbalance, covering both supply-side and demand-side measures.
However, there are specific barriers to the implementation of each option, and some generic constraints on the ability of water supply companies to adapt to a changing climate. This chapter presents preliminary results from an assessment of the barriers to adaptation to water supply shortage in a case study catchment in south-east England with multiple supply companies.